Live Intelligence // TRHBTKCD Proxy Estimate

Strait of Hormuz
Transit Monitor

Real-time tanker vessel crossing estimates for the world's most critical energy chokepoint. 20% of global oil supply. 17 million barrels per day. One narrow passage.

Daily Tanker Crossings

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vessels / day

7-DAY AVG

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Retrieving crossing data...

12-Month Crossing Profile (TRHBTKCD Proxy)

1Y HIGH: 87 | 1Y AVG: 45 | 1Y LOW: 0

Reduction from 1Y Avg

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PERCENT BELOW AVERAGE

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Closure Risk Score

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LOWMODHIGHCRIT

Cape of Good Hope Premium

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% PREMIUM VS HORMUZ ROUTE

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Days Since Traffic Collapse

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SINCE MID-MARCH 2026 COLLAPSE

Traffic fell from ~75 to sub-10 crossings following US-Iran escalation.

Global Oil Supply at Risk

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MILLION BARRELS / DAY

Full closure would remove ~20% of global seaborne crude from market.

EIA Brent Spot Price

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USD / BARREL

Alternative route days added: — days (UAE → Rotterdam via Cape)

Geopolitical Intelligence

Iran Threat Posture

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Diplomatic / Ceasefire Status

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Last Major Incident

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UKMTO / Naval Advisory

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Cascade Pathway

Trigger Hormuz crossing collapse (–93% from 1Y avg)

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Supply Shock 17 mbd removed from seaborne supply; Brent spike

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Inflation Transmission Energy → CPI; Fed paralysis risk (Event #27 CTM)

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Bond Stress 30Y Treasury pressure; $36T principal stack; Schiff trajectory

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Credit / Demand Mortgage/credit channel contraction; demand destruction

Live Intelligence // Southern Chokepoint

Bab al-Mandeb Blockade Monitor

Gateway to the Red Sea and Suez. ~12% of global trade, 7.4 million barrels of petroleum per day. Houthi naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping declared 20 July 2026.

Daily Strait Transits

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vessels / day

7-DAY AVG

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Retrieving transit data...

12-Month Transit Profile (All Vessel Classes)

1Y HIGH: 58 | 1Y AVG: 51 | 1Y LOW: 29

Reduction from Pre-Blockade Avg

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PERCENT BELOW AVERAGE

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Closure Risk Score

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LOWMODHIGHCRIT

Cape vs Suez Route Premium

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% PREMIUM VS RED SEA ROUTE

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Days Since Blockade Declared

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SINCE 20 JULY 2026 DECLARATION

Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia; transits fell ~25% in the first week, tankers −42%.

Oil Flow at Risk

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MILLION BARRELS / DAY

~7% of global petroleum output transits Bab al-Mandeb toward Suez / SUMED.

War Risk Premium (Hull)

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% OF HULL VALUE, S. RED SEA

0.3% pre-blockade. Alternative route days added: — days (Asia → Europe via Cape)

Geopolitical Intelligence

Houthi Threat Posture

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Blockade / Ceasefire Status

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Last Major Incident

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UKMTO / Naval Advisory

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Cascade Pathway

Trigger Houthi blockade; Bab al-Mandeb transits fall

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Rerouting Shock Suez traffic diverts via Cape; insurance reprices

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Freight Inflation Container + tanker rates spike; goods CPI transmission

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Compound Stress Stacks on Hormuz collapse — both chokepoints impaired

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Macro Channel Energy + goods inflation; Fed paralysis risk (Event #27 CTM)

Strait of HormuzTransit Monitor

Bab al-Mandeb Blockade Monitor

Strait of Hormuz
Transit Monitor