Collapse Trigger Matrix

Each event above is measured in isolation — but collapse is never one event, it's the interaction. The matrix's working thesis, drawn from Turchin's secular-cycle logic, is that systemic failure requires roughly two to three Tier 1–2 events firing inside an 18-month window, striking a system whose resilience has already been hollowed out by the slow Tier 3–4 erosions. The average resilience loss across all events is -48% — meaning a trigger hitting today is roughly twice as damaging as the same event hitting fiscally sound, institutionally trusted, socially cohesive America circa 1998. Schiff trajectory math: the 30Y at 5%+ sustained is the inflection where federal debt-service costs become nonlinear — 5→6% will be faster than 4→5%, and 6→7% faster still. ⏳ Click ⟳ Refresh Intel for the latest AI-generated read on which triggers are firing and how they are interacting.